The trend of international oil prices faces uncertainty

At present, there is still great uncertainty in the trend of international oil prices, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty affecting oil prices A surge in Covid-19 cases is expected to slow the recovery in global oil demand, which is expected to outpace demand from December 2021, led by higher output from the United States, OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Annual production in the U.S., Canada and Brazil could hit record levels this year, the report predicts.
OPEC is optimistic about the development of the oil market in 2022. In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expressed concern about the impact of the new coronavirus variant on the oil market in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released in December 2021. The IEA’s view on the supply and demand situation of the crude oil market this year is similar to that of the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The rise in international oil prices is affected by multiple factors such as global economic recovery, tight inventory and insufficient production capacity. In terms of supply, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have continued to implement production reduction plans despite the US’s request to increase oil supply to ease oil prices, and tried to maintain the current supply and demand situation in the international oil market, demonstrating their ability to control oil prices. On the demand side, a steady rebound in economic activity and an increase in transportation fuel consumption are driving oil demand growth. OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to the previous year, of which non-OECD regions are expected to grow by 3.2 million barrels per day. , the OECD region is expected to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day.
In 2021, the global economy will gradually recover from the haze of the epidemic, and major economies will adopt loose fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy, which will form a strong support for international oil prices.